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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd